Apr 5, 2022
Growers, data scientists team up in landmark AI project

Data scientists at the University of Aberdeen are teaming up with fruit growers to build an artificial intelligence (AI) system to forecast harvests, which could potentially save the industry millions each year.

The machine learning system for soft fruit yield forecasting is a three-year collaboration involving the university, Scotland’s innovation center for data and AI The Data Lab, and Arbroath-based Angus Soft Fruits Ltd.

It aims to better harness key information such as historical yield and weather data, weather forecasts and satellite imaging, and expert knowledge from growers, to develop algorithms that accurately forecast production and measure uncertainty.

With an estimated annual production of more than 2,900 tonnes of raspberries and 25,000 tonnes of strawberries, inaccurate yield forecasting costs Scotland’s fruit growers millions each year.

The development of an intelligent and inexpensive forecasting system could prove crucial in ensuring profitability for growers, leading to more efficiencies in sales and packing and transport planning, while enhancing their reputation with customers and limiting food waste and associated carbon emissions.

“We are delighted to team up with Angus Soft Fruits Ltd and The Data Lab in this exciting project that could prove to be a game-changer for an industry worth millions to Scotland’s economy,” said Georgios Leontidis, director of the university’s Interdisciplinary Center for Data and Artificial Intelligence, in a news release.

“Over the three-year lifespan of this project, we will work with growers to understand the flaws in current forecasting systems, develop advanced machine learning models that harness high-quality data, and seek expert input from growers that can further enhance these models,” said Leontidis. “The ultimate aim is to produce an inexpensive yield forecasting system that brings all of this high-quality data together, providing maximum advantage for growers and helping them to stay in profit and protect jobs.”

The berry market has matured in recent years, and with it the margins have become much tighter – causing growers to leave the fruit production business, said Jan Redpath, technical director of Angus Soft Fruits Ltd, in the news release.

“On the one hand we have soaring costs in particular labor and fertilizers, and on the other, our biggest ability to influence price comes from being able to accurately match supply with demand, or at least to better pre-empt the scale and timing of flushes and dips in crop production,” said Redpath. “Competitive advantage is gained from producing a stream of new varieties. However, with new varieties comes new crop results and there is no historical prediction data to rely on to forecast future yields. Research into more accurate forecasting is required more than ever, and we are excited to work with the University and The Data Lab on what we see as a vitally important project, that has the potential to bring lasting benefits to our growers.”




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