Apr 7, 2007

Imports to Equal Exports for 2005

U.S. agricultural exports are expected to balance imports in 2005 – the first time the value of U.S. exports won’t exceed imports since the 1950s.

That prediction comes from a USDA quarterly forecast that sets both U.S agricultural exports and imports at $56 billion in 2005. That number is down from the record $62.3 billion in exports and up from $52.7 billion in imports in 2004. The 2004 fiscal year ended Sept. 30.

The new USDA forecast, released in November, puts the value of 2005 agricultural exports below its $57.5 billion August prediction, the last time the report was released. The USDA’s November forecast for 2005 agricultural imports is $1 billion above the August forecast.

The forecast blames price reductions for wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton exports for the loss of revenue in 2005. The value of the corn exports was reduced from $5.9 billion to $5 billion from the August to November USDA forecast. Corn exports were valued at $5.84 billion in 2004.

The USDA’s predicted 2005 soybean export value fell from $6.6 billion in August to $5.7 billion in November. Soybean exports were valued at $7.46 billion in 2004.

The USDA’s forecast for the value of horticultural exports remains unchanged from the August forecast of $13.8 billion. That number is $539,000 higher than 2004 horticultural exports.

The value of fruit exports went down $100,000 to $3.9 billion from the August to November forecast. Fruit exports were $3.82 billion in 2004.

The value of vegetable exports remained unchanged at $3.3 billion from the August to November forecast and $159,000 higher than 2004.

The November report predicted the value of 2005 fruit exports at $3.9 million, down $100,000 from the August report. Fruit exports were valued at $3.82 billion in 2004.

The USDA predicts Canada, with $9.7 billion, will remain the No. 1 country for U.S. agricultural exports in 2005. The United States exported $9.54 billion in agricultural exports to Canada in 2004. Canada is expected to be the only country to show an increase in U.S. agricultural exports in 2005.

The USDA forecasts the largest decrease in agricultural exports will be to the Asian market. U.S. agricultural exports in Asia are expected to be $20.5 billion in 2005, down from $24.35 billion in 2004.

For imports, the UDSA reported the $1 billion increase from the August to November forecast is because of the weaker U.S. dollar. The value of horticultural imports is down $200,000 to $24.8 billion from the August to November report. Horticultural imports were valued at $22.92 in 2004.

The value of fruit imports is estimated at $5 billion for 2005. That number is $100,000 lower than the August prediction but $315,000 higher than 2004 fruit imports.

Estimated U.S. vegetable imports for 2005 fell from $7.5 billion to $7.4 billion in the August to November prediction. Vegetable imports were valued at $6.85 billion in 2004.

The United States is expected to receive the most agricultural imports, valued at $13.2 billion, from Europe and Eurasia in 2005. The United States received agricultural imports valued at $12.51 billion from Europe and Eurasia in 2004.

The European Union is predicted to be the second largest exporter of agricultural goods, valued at $12.4 billion, to the United States in 2005. Canada is expected to come in third in 2005 with imports to the United States valued at $11.7 billion.